One really great thing about the upcoming Brexit …and possibly the only great thing about it that I can actually see….is that it will provide brand new jobs for between 10,000 and 30,000 people.Where the money to pay their wages for all of this , is coming from, is something of a mystery at the moment, but let’s look at the situation that is developing.After all , we’ll really be paying those wages for these future jobsworths from our own pockets.
It is the task of the “Three Blind Mice”,Brexiteers, Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, Brexit Minister David Davis and International Trade Minister Liam Fox to find both the people and the money to pay for it all. At the moment they have made no headway with their project but they still need to prepare for all the useless work coming down the pipe.They need professional trade deal negotiators and all the background and back-room staff in place , to do the necessary paperwork .It is reckoned that it will take up to 30,000 of these lucky applicants to fill the available office-spaces. The money for all of that has to be found within the existing departments of each minister. It’s worth thinking about ,but it’s the kind of gypsy charm that it would take a magical Aladdin’s lamp to provide. Without rubbing the lamp and awaiting the arrival of the bountiful genie, where did they think they’d ever get the money from to pay all these people?…I suppose ,there’s always us.
That’s only the start of it , of course.We’ll let those three ministers tussle with that little puzzle and leave them in the fast -depleting treasure-house to hoke and find that wonderful magical oil-lamp. They’ll need it anyway, when the lights go out like it did back in those far-off nostalgic 1970s when we huddled around Super-Ser heaters when we were sent home from work because there was no electricity. After all ,that’s the job they wanted to do and it’s a problem they personally are paid the big bucks to solve .That’s why we pay their wages…right? In the meantime , it mightn’t be a bad idea to start stocking up with candles and bottled gas.I know ….you thought it was only mad -survivalists who did that sort of thing…but think again, folks…welcome to the future!
Their problems are small beer compared to what the Institute of Fiscal Studies has come up with.They have calculated that leaving the single market will cost Britain some £70 billion a year.Each household will pay £2,900 every year.That’s about £60 every week. Well at least it might slow down my wine consumption. There’s always a silver lining in every cloud, isn’t there? Here’s looking forward to a healthier future .It might even be like back in the days of wartime when the front lawns were dug up and everyone planted vegetables in any available space.I’m an optimist and a bit of digging has never bothered me .
Senior European politicians have already made it perfectly clear that Britain can’t keep its membership of the single market unless its makes a sizeable contribution to the EU budget and allows the free movement of EU workers. If the EU backed down on that , everyone would want the same deal and the EU would be gone at a stroke.There’s always the possibility that something like that might happen and Ireland and every other country will follow Britain’s lead , but I doubt it . After all , half the population thought it was a really bad idea in the first place anyway, so I’d imagine there’s much doubt in Ireland and Europe too.
So if we pay £70,000 million to to leave the EU compared to the £9,000 million it costs to stay in the EU every year, things begin to look just a wee bit daft, given that we’ll also be outside the tent when future EU designed regulations are being cobbled together without UK input. Those terms will have to be accepted without argument, after all.
The real paradox of Brexit is always going to be that the more the UK strives for political independence, the more it will suffer economically.It’s really a conundrim that there is no way around.It has become the norm to disparage the “experts” but it is these thinkers who have made all the possible previous model projections as to how our futures might pan out.Why abandon them now?The information is not garnered from picking through the entrails of a dead chicken or looking at the alignment of the planets for clues. It is based on what might be possible and what might not.Yes , sometimes they get it wrong , but there’s no other show in town.
There are five possible models that I can find for Britain’s future :
1.NORWAY‘s agreement.: In this scenario the UK joins the European Economic Area and maintains full access to the single market, but must adopt EU standards and regulations with little influence over these. The UK still makes a substantial contribution to the EU budget but is still unable to impose immigration restrictions.That’s not what the UK wants, of course . They want immigration restricted and this does not deliver that, so I believe it is a non-starter.
2.TURKEY‘s Deal : Internal tariffs are avoided, with the UK adopting many EU regulations, but the UK is required to implement EU external tariffs, without any influence on the making of them or even guaranteed access to third markets.That’s not what the UK wants either.
3.FREE TRADE AREA DEAL(FTA) :The UK is free to agree FTAs independently and the UK’s relationship with the EU is itself governed by an FTA. Tariff barriers are unlikely, but as with all FTAs the UK will need to agree common standards and regulation – with independence.This might be a possibility but will depend on the details.
4. SWITZERLAND DEAL :The UK and the EU agree a set of bilateral accords which govern UK access to the single market in specific sectors. Brussels is concerned that cherrypicking might limit the sectors. The UK becomes a follower of regulation in those sectors covered, but negotiates various FTAs separately.The EU mightn’t go for this deal.
5. MOST FAVOURED NATION DEAL (MFN) : This is a status or level of treatment accorded by one state to another in international trade. … (Trade advantages include low tariffs or high import quotas.)No need to agree common standards and regulation, but at the expense of facing the EU’s common external tariff, which damages UK trade with the EU in goods as well as services. Non-tariff barriers may emerge over time to damage trade in services, in particular. This might not suit the UK’s “freewheeling “idea of itself as a trader.
All of this is a future mire of negotiations which will very likely, by most acknowledged projections , deliver back less than we already have and at greater cost to us .It will likely take some ten years to even complete the final extraction , so it might be better to think about where we all might personally be when we are a decade older and which government and which leader might be in power by then.Those hoping for an instant fix are due for a litany of disappointments on the way to their goal .In the meantime across the sea, Donald Trump will , by then, have completed his four, or possibly ,eight year stint in or out of the White House and doubtless we’ll know by then , if there really is anything at all inside his head, if some of his supporters or his opponents haven’t already removed it. The comb-over will be then replaced by a greying toupee and his diet of junk -food and lack of alcohol and exercise, will have taken its eventual toll. The great creatives of our age will by then be all already dead and have been replaced by vacuous dumbed -down fake “celebrity” orange-skinned clones , airbrushed to a production-line sheen of conformity.
Although I still have faith in an upcoming generation’s ability to see through the jive and rise to their feet and fight back, there’s no doubt that across the world the barbarians have currently crashed through the gates of civilisation.